There's No "I" in Blog: Key to the Tigers' Post-Season: Edwin Jackson

Friday, September 25, 2009

Key to the Tigers' Post-Season: Edwin Jackson

It's not certain that the Tigers will make the post-season, but right now they have the upper hand over the Twins. With ten games remaining, they have a three-game lead over Minnesota and end with seven games at home--three against the Twins. A series win there could put the season away and make the final weekend series against Chicago a formality.

Since I am actually rooting for Minnesota to take the division, mainly because of should-be-MVP Joe Mauer, I don't mind potentially jinxing the Tigers by writing their Key to the Post-Season article a bit early. The Tigers' key will be their 26-year-old right-hander, Edwin Jackson.

Jackson was acquired from the Rays in the offseason for Matt Joyce. At the time, many pundits thought the Rays were getting the better end of the deal as Joyce had shown great power in limited time last year, and Jackson's seeming improvement in 2008 was really an average performance bolstered by the Rays' fantastic 2008 defense.

This season proved the majority wrong, as the Tigers definitely got the better end of the deal. Jackson has harnessed his electric stuff and managed to increased his K rate and lower his BB rate significantly. His K:BB ratio increased from a respectable, but ultimately mediocre 1.4 to a great 2.32, and he has actually gotten better defense behind him, even though the Tigers' defense overall is not as good as the Rays' was last year (park effects may have something to do with this). All this means that Jackson has lowered his ERA from a somewhat flukey 4.42 to a very "true" 3.25.

How has he done it? Looking at the fangraphs PitchFX breakdowns, he's increased his fastball velocity slightly, but his stuff seems to be the same. He's actually thrown his third pitch, the changeup, less often than he has in the past, and thrown his nasty slider (16.7 runs above average according to Fangraphs) more often as well. He's inducing batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone much more often, and they're missing the ball more often when they do swing at bad pitches. Overall, he's being more deceptive and just missing more bats.

Whether he can keep it up remains to be seen, but like the Angels and Kazmir, the Tigers will definitely need him to pitch well to have a shot at winning. Justin Verlander is an ace, but beyond him and Jackson the Tigers' playoff rotation is questionable, with manager Jim Leyland needing to choose between the talented but inexperienced Rick Porcello, the mediocre Nate Robertson, or the possibly injured Jeremy Bonderman or Jarrod Washburn, none of whom seem to be good choices.

*Photo courtesy of Keith Allison via Creative Commons license

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Rachel Partin

Rachel is a writer living in Somerville, Massachusetts. She spent her childhood shooting hoops with her beloved hot pink basketball and getting bowled over as she posted up against her towering brothers. Eventually learning that she was better suited to track and field, she pursued a high school career as a pole vaulter, only to inevitably end up sunbathing on the pit rather than practicing. In college she tutored athletes in writing and English, discovering, to her delight, that most college athletes truly care about academics. She edits a sports blog in her spare time.

Alex Strum

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Patrick Truby

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