Key to the Angels' Post-Season: Scott Kazmir

In a trade that surprised many casual fans, Scott Kazmir, long the Rays' best pitcher and only glimmer of light besides Carl Crawford, was traded to the Angels for two, well, nobodies, which is about all you get after the non-waiver trade deadline. The surprising thing about the deal is that he was traded at all, since that means every team in the AL besides the Yankees passed on claiming him off waivers.

So why didn't anyone want him? His salary isn't that bad, as he's owed $8 million next year and $12 million in 2011. But despite always having been somewhat babied by the Rays (shutting him down early, limiting his pitch counts, etc.), it's possible that the unfixable mechanics which prompted the Mets and Rick Petersen to trade him in the first place have finally come home to roost. Looking at his stats this year before the trade, in 111 innings he only struck out 91 while walking 50 and allowing a 5.92 ERA. That's a drop of nearly three strikeouts per nine innings, which is precipitous.

The drop in both real performance and in his peripherals doesn't bode well for Kazmir the rest of the season, and so far his performance hasn't changed much. In his three games with the Angels, he has allowed just four ER, but he has 14 punchados in 19.1 IP, which still isn't exactly back to the old Scott Kazmir. Even so, he has good velocity, and the Angels will be counting on him as they need someone to step up as their third starter behind Jered Weaver and John Lackey. While Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana aren't awful replacements, a healthy and effective Kazmir would be better than either, especially if he can remember how to strike people out--something Saunders doesn't do too well. As Baseball Prospectus notes, one of the best indicators of success in the post-season is how well you can miss bats, which makes sense intuitively since the hitters are better and can take advantage of mistakes.

Whether the Angels have what it takes to advance in the post-season is a bigger question, but if Kazmir is dominant, it will help them a heck of a lot.