World Cup: Knockout Part 2, and, Well, the Refs

This hasn't been a good tournament for referees. Most U.S. fans are familiar with the bad calls the national team faced in the group stages, but the two calls that affected games Sunday were even worse. First, a goal from a Frank Lampard shot that clearly went over the goal line, which would have tied their game with Germany, was disallowed, and then in the later game, the first Argentine goal was clearly offside. England played very poorly in the second half (and any time you give up four goals you can't really blame a bad call), and Mexico was outplayed by Argentina, but regardless of their effect on the final result it's disgraceful to have such poor refereeing.

Much of the discussion about "fixing" the officiating has centered around the use of instant replay. While I personally think replay on goals would be a good thing (or adding extra officials to serve as goal judges), I am surprised that the calls which seem obvious and are made correctly in most other games are being missed in this tournament, which is the biggest spectacle for the sport. I watch a decent amount of soccer, and the three worst-officiated games in my memory were all in the World Cup. While it's possible I am remembering these games because they were more important than the English Premier League games I watch the rest of the year, I think it's fair to question why the referees, who should be the best in the world, have made so many more blatant mistakes in the World Cup than in league games. I don't pretend to know the answer, but it's something I haven't seen much discussion of.

On to the games:
Monday, June 28
10:00 AM: Netherlands v. Slovakia
One thing the World Cup tournament setup is pretty good at is separating the quality teams from the weaker ones for the early rounds and beginning of the knockout rounds. Unless a strong team suffers a surprise loss (like England did) or on the rare occasion two strong teams get put in one group (see Brazil and Portugal), most of the matchups in the round of 16 are one-sided. But, this is of course a good thing, as it makes the later matches more exciting.

This game is currently in halftime as I write this, and the Netherlands are leading 1-0 on a great Arjen Robben shot. With Robben back and close to 100% I don't see the Netherlands losing this game, and I think they could present a strong challenge to Brazil (or certainly Chile if they can pull off an upset).

2:30 PM: Chile v. Brazil
Much has been made of Brazil's "new style" of play, which is a more defensive, physical style rather than the stylish, flashy "joga bonita" they are famous for. This game today against Chile will be the first real test of this. While they did play Portugal, that game didn't matter much for either team, so it's tough to draw conclusions from it.

Have the South American teams really been dominant this World Cup? As it stands now, all five South American teams have advanced to at least the round of 16, with four of them winning their group. Brazil and Argentina are surely two of the best teams in the world; no one denies this. But only one of the South American teams in the knockout round had to defeat a strong team on the way there, and in that game Chile lost to Spain, but both advanced due to Switzerland's draw with Honduras. Uruguay has looked good, but was in a weak group with Mexico, South Africa, and a French team that fell apart. Paraguay's group included the other European team to underperform, Italy, along with Slovakia and the worst side in the tournament, New Zealand (with whom Paraguay tied). Even Argentina has yet to face a team stronger than Mexico, and looked vulnerable at times in that game until they scored an offsides goal.

Brazil and Argentina are likely to progress deep into the tournament, but the oft-repeated "South American dominance" idea is greatly overblown.

Tuesday, June 29
10:00 AM: Japan v. Paraguay
This will be the first test for Paraguay, and it's not even a particularly big one. Japan does have strength and seems to work well as a team, though, so I like them in this game.

2:30 PM: Spain v. Portugal
Here's the game I'm waiting for. Portugal has plenty of talent, but it's tough to tell exactly how much since they are some of the worst divers and embellishers in the tournament. While this can be effective, it depends on getting calls from the refs, which doesn't always happen. There's also some element of "crying wolf" that may prevent Portugal from getting legitimate fouls called, which is fine in my opinion, since diving is essentially cheating.

Spain has played very well in all their games. Even in their loss to Switzerland they had many more good opportunities than the Swiss and far outplayed them, but just didn't find the goal. They are great passers, and while their finishing at times can be suspect, they spend so much time with the ball that they usually only need one goal to win.