World Cup Group Stage: The Last Games

The final round of the group stage isn't likely to hold as much drama as group C did, but there are some interesting scenarios, especially in group H, as well as the possibility of some Cinderella teams making it in if they can come up with one more strong performance. Let's take a look.

Thursday, June 24
10:00 AM: Italy v. Slovakia, Paraguay v. New Zealand

So for some reason Group F plays before Group E, but I am guessing maybe it's because Group E's teams are more interesting, or perhaps because group E includes Japan, or something. Anyway, the 10:00 AM group is pretty, as New Zealand's surprise draw with Italy (and Italy's terrible performance so far) leaves the group pretty open. Paraguay is likely to get in, as they have the edge in points, goal differential, and they play New Zealand, who are (theoretically) the worst team in the tournament. They win the group with a win and would also win it with a tie as long as Italy doesn't win by more than one goal. Winning the group would let them avoid playing the dangerous Netherlands, as they'd match up instead with Denmark or Japan.

If the Paraguay game goes as it's supposed to, Italy can be in with a win or draw against Slovakia, while Slovakia would need a win to leapfrog Italy and New Zealand. Italy is likely to take second in this group, but the Netherlands shouldn't be scared of them just because they are the defending champions, as this is the weakest team Italy has fielded in a while, their starting keeper is out (though their backup is also good), and while their performance so far is disappointing and surprising, it's tough to call it shocking.

2:30 PM: Netherlands v. Cameroon, Japan v. Denmark
Netherlands is all but assured of taking the top spot here, as they would have to lose and someone would have to win big in the other game for them to finish second. Between Japan and Denmark, Japan has the lead in goal differential, so it's possible they will be playing for a tie, while Denmark will need to win and should be pushing forward. The problem with this for Japan is that defense isn't exactly their strength, so the Danish attack could break them down given enough time. With the Netherlands likely to field a B team, all eyes should be on this game.

Friday, June 25
10:00 AM: Brazil v. Portugal, Ivory Coast v. N. Korea
Portugal beat North Korea badly enough that they are in unless they lose by about six goals to Brazil. They're far too good for that, so it's all decided except the seeding in this group. Unfortunately, group H is mostly up in the air, so there's not much advantage to winning this group for either Brazil or Portugal. So you're likely to see a boring morning as both teams will avoid cards, play backups, and look ahead to the knockout stage.

North Korea was the first "team that no one expected to perform well" to actually perform like that, giving up seven goals in an absolute shellacking by Portugal. The Ivorians played better, but with Didier Drogba not at 100% it was always going to be tough for them to advance. This game doesn't matter, but might be more fun to watch than the other one.

2:30 PM: Chile v. Spain, Switzerland v. Honduras
Usually I am pretty good at figuring out the different scenarios in these final group stages. But this one is a doozy. I spent about 20 minutes playing with it in my head and still wasn't sure, so I turned to the internet to help.

Chile is on top of the group with six points. Spain and Switzerland each have three, and Honduras has zero. Spain is probably the best team of the group, but they lost to Switzerland somewhat unluckily in a game they dominated, and as Switzerland is likely to beat lowly Honduras, Spain will probably need a win to advance. Unfortunately for Chile, they are only up by two in goal differential over Switzerland, so if they lose to Spain and the Swiss win by more than one, Chile would finish in third on goal differential and miss out on the group stage. If they lose 2-1 and Switzerland only wins 1-0, though, they would be through on the third tiebreaker, which is total goals scored (they also hold the fourth tiebreaker over Switzerland by virtue of their 1-0 victory over them).

Because Chile can win the group with a draw or with a 2-1 loss, they are likely to play an attacking style (even though they could win with a 0-0 draw), which should make for a very exciting match. Switzerland may look to pile on the pressure in the hopes of winning by multiple goals, which would increase their chances of winning a tiebreaker. If you're confused, just watch the games—it will be explained to you as the picture becomes clearer. Heck, watch the games anyway.