The NBA Finals: Beat L.A.(?)

In the 12th iteration of one of the best rivalries in sports, the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers will meet today in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. The Lakers haven't had much of a problem getting here, as they cruised through the regular season and while two of their series went to six games, neither really seemed in doubt. They had problems dealing with Russell Westbrook of Oklahoma City (while focusing lots of attention on Kevin Durant) and had a few hiccups with the Suns zone defense and their bench, but some incredible shooting by Kobe Bryant* and an unexpected rebound and putback from Ron Artest won that series for them.

On the other coast, the Celtics were the fourth seed in the weak East after coasting for much of the year.** Now, most of the time I don't think teams can really "coast." Players are conditioned to go all-out for the whole time they are on the floor and I am incredulous that short of resting more, there is a feasible way to save players for the playoffs. But maybe this year's Celtics are a counterexample, as it seems possible that once it became apparent they weren't going to get home-court (perhaps after losing to Atlanta, L.A., and twice to Orlando in the span of ten days in late January/early February) that they mailed it in and looked forward to the playoffs. One needs simply to look at how they've played this postseason against the supposed two best teams in the East for evidence of this. It's easy to say in retrospect, but it should be clear that when healthy this team can run with the best teams in the game. Sure, Pierce, Allen, and Garnett are two years older than they were during their 2008 championship run, and they've lost Leon Powe and James Posey, but they have added Glen "Uno Uno" Davis and Rasheed Wallace, and most importantly, Rajon Rondo is two years older as well.

So how will this series play out? It's shaping up to be a classic for sure. One thing that hurts the underdog Celtics is the switch to the 2-3-2 format for the final (a remnant from the days when flying coast-to-coast was more difficult). Not having a Game 6 at home means the team without home-court advantage will most likely have to win the clinching game on the road, which is quite difficult. In 2008, it was the Lakers' Game 5 collapse that really ended the series, as the Celtics then took Game 6 at home easily—and if they hadn't they had another game at home to go. But the Celtics have played quite well on the road this postseason as well as during the regular season, so I think they can take one of the first two and one of the last two on the road. The key will be winning two of three at home. I think it's likely that Kobe will steal a game or two in the series, but I don't see the Lakers being able to consistently handle Rajon Rondo, not to mention guarding Ray Allen and Paul Pierce. If Garnett or Davis hit their jump shots, they have even more worries. The fact is that thus far they haven't played a team with as good a defense or as many offensive weapons as the Celtics, and none of the teams have had a player as dynamic as Rondo.

Celtics in 7.

*One of the reasons the favorites don't lose series as often in basketball as in other sports, and one of the reasons I find it less interesting, is that the best player on the floor often wins the game nearly single-handedly for his team. If you have a Michael Jordan or a Kobe Bryant, you're giving him the ball in crunch time, he's taking your shots, and he's often going to make them and win the game for you, even when you play picture-perfect defense.

**Another reason I don't like basketball as much as other sports (maybe this is beginning to be a topic for another post) is the high number of teams that make the playoffs. It's slightly different in the NHL as the standings from seeds 5-10 tend to be very close, but was there anyone in the country who doubted the Celtics would make the playoffs at any point this season? And with the 2-2-1-1-1 setup until the Final, there frankly isn't a whole lot of incentive for teams to try hard to get home court advantage, either.