Back in October, I channeled my inner Vitale and tried to predict the 65-team field for this year's NCAA Championship. First off, let me say this: ESPN loves to celebrate Joe Lunardi's record of predicting teams getting into the field, saying that it's something like 97%. HE PICKS IT ON SELECTION SUNDAY. Try stepping up to the big leagues, Joey, set the picks in stone back in October. Some notes on my brackets compared to how they actually shaped up:
- I predicted 32 of the 65 teams in the tournament, so just under half.
- I'm pretty sure during the selection show, one of the commentators almost made a "bangbus" reference before retracting. Probably wouldn't have been a great career move.
- Nailed it: I accurately called the seeds of Kansas (1 Seed), Kentucky (1), Villanova (2), Georgetown (3), Butler (5), Notre Dame (6), Morgan State (15) and Arkansas-Pine Bluff (16 seed after starting the season 0-11, who loves ya, baby?)
- Just missed: Of the first four teams I had out, three of them made the final bracket, Kansas State as a two seed, Florida as a ten seed, and Old Dominion as an eleven. If you're not impressed by getting 32 of 65, I would like to point out that Long Beach State, Boston University, Quinnipiac, Morehead State, and Weber State all lost in the finals of one bid conference tournaments, meaning they were mere points from being in the bracket themselves.
- I also had Mississippi State, Illinois, Seton Hall, Ole Miss, Dayton, Memphis, and Cincinnati making the final field, and all were on the bubble up until the final week. I think Mississippi State still should've made it in ahead of Florida, despite never gaining eligibility for top recruit Renardo Sidney.
- Oops: I whiffed on UNC (16-16), UConn (17-15), Oklahoma (13-18), and Michigan (15-17), who all were ranked in the preseason ESPN Top 25. Rutgers (15-17), UCLA (14-18), South Carolina (15-16), and Alabama (17-15) were also bad calls. Not that anyone noticed, but Nicholls State, which I had winning the Southland Conference, went 11-19.
- Perhaps the biggest lesson is that I'm a big, soft, pathetic homer. I had my favorite team Penn State (11-20) making it, my alma mater Hofstra (19-14), and local squads Boston College (15-16) and Holy Cross (9-22, yikes) making the tournament. And you know what? They're all gonna make it next year. Oh, and I'll defend my selection of Oregon State (14-17) as an eleven seed by saying that I was just trying to be nice to Patrick.
As for the real brackets, a few quick thoughts before I fill mine out:
- I'm not sure when the last time was the Pac-10 didn't win one game in March Madness, but there is a very real chance that it will happen this year. Both Washington (vs. Marquette) and California (vs. Louisville) have tough match-ups against seasoned Big East squads.
- I think some number one seeds are trouble. Both Duke and Kentucky could struggle as early as the second round. Kansas, meanwhile, I think will walk into the Elite Eight before facing any kind of challenge, most likely against Ohio State or Georgetown.
- Possible upset specials to make the Sweet 16: Georgia Tech, Minnesota, Old Dominion, and Richmond.
- My Final Four picks, even though you didn't ask: Kansas, West Virginia, Syracuse, and Villanova. I know, two ones and two twos. Not terribly exciting. I just think after the top eight or so teams, there is a fairly sizable gap in talent and consistency. So there could be a lot of early upsets, but I don't see a George Mason in this crowd.
Enjoy, everybody, and if you want to match your skills against those of the There's No "I" in Blog staff, join our March Madness pool on Facebook. The winner will get a prize, rumored to be a sweet t-shirt or a thought-provoking sports book.
Monday, March 15, 2010
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