Theo's Plan

The Red Sox bowed out of the playoffs on Sunday in an exceedingly annoying way, as their ace closer blew leads of 5-2 in the 8th and 6-4 in the 9th to allow the Angels to sweep. This series loss was at once surprising and predictable. The team had struggled all year to score away from Fenway, and only scored one run in two games on the road against the Angels. The defense had been shaky all year, and they allowed a few playable balls to get past them against California. And finally, even though Papelbon had a solid season overall, he had been shaky all year and to many observers it seemed like only a matter of time before his high-wire act ended like Falcon Heene's balloon flight.*

There are a number of Red Sox fans who will tell you that they're not that bothered by this loss because the team "wasn't that good anyway" and "wasn't going to beat the Yankees." I think these fan are completely full of crap and are just trying to make themselves feel better. This team wasn't that different from the one that took Tampa to seven games in the ALCS last year, and it is especially frustrating to lose partly because of the bullpen, which had been considered a strength. Obviously the team can't win every year, but getting bounced in the first round doesn't make me feel any better, when they certainly had the players to go farther.

Looking at it objectively, though, it was a good season. The Sox overcame underperformance from nearly everyone not named Drew, Youkilis, Bay, or Lester, including awful seasons from such key players as David Ortiz, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Mike Lowell, the mess that was the shortstop position, Captain Varitek, and even Jerry Remy, and they still won 95 games and weren't in serious danger of missing the playoffs after September 1. Most teams would consider that a success, and they'd be right. But how can the Sox ensure their success next year and improve their playoff chances?

The team is probably stuck with a few aging hitters like Ortiz, Lowell, and Victor Martinez. They are not going to "pound" anyone into submission. But the pitching staff will include Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and (healthy) Daisuke Matsuzaka, so with those four and their solid bullpen they have a good shot. What I'd like to see is a renewed focus on defense, which can help out the pitching staff and win a bunch of close games, even if the offense doesn't score five or more runs. Here's a few suggestions to that end:

1. Sign Adrian Beltre: Beltre received too long and large a contract after his huge contract year of 2004, and his first year in Seattle was pretty lousy. But since then, he has adjusted to the AL and been consistent, hitting for a slug-heavy .800 OPS in the depressed conditions of Safeco Field while playing tremendous defense. His right-handed pull stroke actually makes him a great fit for Fenway (like Mike Lowell) and in its hitter-friendly confines it would be reasonable to expect at least an .850 OPS going forward. His 2009 season was marred by injury, but that would just reduce his asking price.

The main reason they should sign Beltre is because his defense is the best in the league. The poor defensive range of the infield was a problem for the Sox all year, as it had a positive feedback-like effect of allowing more baserunners than they should and making the pitchers work harder to get out of the Lowell and Lugo-made jams. Replacing Lowell with Beltre would instantly save about 20 runs, and possibly more if you take into account Lowell's probable offensive decline.

What do you do with Lowell? Honestly, I don't really care, but he can still hit lefties well, so I think you either trade him to someone who thinks he is 5 years younger, or have him DH and come off the bench.

2. If Lowrie isn't healthy, sign a good glove / no bat SS: I would love Jed Lowrie to be completely healthy and build on what he accomplished in his rookie season, when he hit at league average for a shortstop and played outstanding defense (no errors, six runs above average in 45 games according to UZR), all with a broken bone in his wrist. Unfortunately, he's suffered numerous setbacks due to that broken bone never really healing, and hasn't been able to stay on the field since.

The fact of the matter is that the Red Sox's lineup survived with Nick Green, Julio Lugo, and Alex Gonzalez getting the majority of the at-bats at short, so if Lowrie isn't healthy, the team would be best served with a shortstop who's at least good defensively. Here are the mostly likely options:

A. Adam Everett
B. Cesar Izturis
C. Jack Wilson

All three have great defense. Wilson is probably the most likely to contribute offensively, but would also be the most expensive. Everett is likely to be the cheapest, but is probably the worst offensively. Izturis is sort of a middle ground, but is under contract by Baltimore through 2010, so he'd require giving up someone in trade.

Acquiring Beltre and Wilson would save the Sox 40 runs over last year, and allow Kevin Youkilis to return to first base and not be passed back and forth across the diamond. The difference between Wilson's offense and the Frankenshortstop that played last year is minimal, as Sox shortstops combined for a .655 OPS last year. Having great infield defense would allow the Sox to employ a fifth starter who doesn't strike many guys out (Tim Wakefield or Michael Bowden, perhaps) and he wouldn't get eaten alive due to cheap hits. A healthy Lowrie is the best option for the position, but it doesn't seem they can count on that.

3. Explore trading Papelbon and Lowell: I've outlined above why they should trade Lowell -- signing Beltre would make him superfluous. Let me explain why I'm suggesting trading our Cajun friend:

Papelbon modified his delivery to begin the season to avoid strain on his shoulder, which led to sloppy mechanics and poor control. He managed to wiggle out of most self-made jams earlier in the year, possibly due to luck, possibly due to "reaching back" for something extra, and then reverted back to his old mechanics (higher arm slot) and regained his control, with his FIP going back to the low 2s from July onwards. Unfortunately, in the most important outing of the year, his mechanics and control were once again all out of whack and he was grooving fastballs and missing the target, which led to the worst appearance of his career.

He's also stubborn, not very smart, and a loudmouth, and is going to get expensive for the next two years and then probably leave when he can (he has said as much). He only throws one pitch for whatever reason. We have Daniel Bard (who had some bumps but is just learning how to pitch at the major league level and completely outpitched Papelbon in the post-season) for the next five years.

If they can make Papelbon part of a trade to acquire a major bat, the Red Sox absolutely should.

4. Left Field: I have absolutely no idea what to do with left field, and I am deferring to Theo. Bay is a terrible defender. Holliday will cost a trillion dollars, and I'm not convinced he is the type of elite talent that is worth a five-plus-year deal, especially since his fielding stats have declined each year since 2007. There's not much else available, honestly. Josh Reddick or Ryan Kalish may be an answer here eventually, but not next year, so barring something surprising I think it's going to be Bay (with him moving to DH after Ortiz's contract is done).

With a strong defense, a pitching staff four deep led by Lester and Beckett, and a solid offense whose demise is overpredicted (it does include Youkilis, Bay, and Victor Martinez after all), the Sox should be as likely as ever to make the playoffs and advance deep once there.

*This was written before he had been found at home, and the author assumed he had fallen out of the balloon. We're really good people here, honestly. Puppies kittens koala bears.

*Photo courtesy of Paul Keleher via Creative Commons license