No, seriously. October is my favorite month. The weather is just to my liking, there's Octoberfest beer in the taps, the NFL and European soccer seasons are in full swing, and the NHL and NBA seasons are about to begin. And most importantly, it's time for the MLB playoffs.
This year is a little bittersweet, as of course the Olde Towne Teame, the Red Sox, didn't qualify for the postseason, due to some trickery or another. But even though my team didn't make it, my second-favorite team—whoever's playing the Yankees—is still alive. And playoff baseball is great no matter who's playing. Let's get on to the preview.
Tampa Bay vs. Texas
It's tough to figure out these two teams. The Rays seem to have a mediocre offense with several holes and a good, but not great pitching staff, but they led the AL East nearly wire-to-wire and were never in danger of falling out of a playoff spot. At the end of May I took a look at them and noted that their defense was performing at an exceptional, probably unsustainable level and their offense was showing an incredible prowess at hitting in high-leverage situations:
But with runners in scoring position, the Rays are hitting .287/.367/.451 for an OPS of .819—a huge increase over their .744 overall OPS. With men on any base they have an .809 OPS. In high leverage situations they have a .798 OPS. It's not uncommon for an individual player to hit better than average in clutch situations over one or even a few seasons. David Ortiz did it from 2003-2007, for one. But for an entire team to do so is basically impossible.
Let's take a look at those numbers now:
Overall OPS: .736
RISP: .790
Men on: .783
High Leverage: .794
What the heck! These numbers didn't regress to the mean at all. Players across the league do hit slightly better with runners on than with the bases empty, but not to this extent. And there's essentially no difference between high, medium, or low leverage hitting across the league. So how did the Rays do it for a whole year?
Well, the answer now is still the same as it was in May: they got lucky. They had a great year hitting in big situations, and that allowed a mediocre offense to score about 50 more runs than they "should" have if their hits had been spread out normally (according to Baseball Prospectus' UEQR numbers). And again, the projection for the future is the same: their great luck may or may not continue, but digging down statistically, this is a mediocre offense. They finished sixth in the league in OBP and eighth in slugging percentage (just where they were in May) and yet managed to be third in runs. Everyone chalks this up to their aggressive baserunning, which is part of it, but the main reason is their situational hitting. Since I can't predict what luck they'll have, we'll say that the Rangers have a significant advantage in offense over Tampa.
The Rangers offense, while better than Tampa's, has its own questions. They got poor production from several offensive positions, and the Ballpark at Arlington is an extreme hitters' park, so they have questions about hitting on the road. Rangers catchers, first basemen, shortstops, and center-fielders all hit for below a .700 OPS this year, which is pretty lousy. While the main culprit at first base, Justin Smoak, went to Seattle in the Cliff Lee trade, his replacement, Mitch Moreland, is a rookie with under 200 plate appearances in his career. Even among the bright spots there are questions: Josh Hamilton is recovering from a broken rib, Vlad Guerrero had just a .748 OPS in the second half, and Nelson Cruz had a huge home/road split (1.099 OPS at home, .805 on the road).
On the pitching side, both teams once again have plenty of talent but plenty of questions. Both teams have a strong ace with previous postseason success, but Cliff Lee took game one, and even before then had a stronger postseason record. David Price surpassed his previous year's innings total by nearly 50, so maybe a poor performance could have been expected. Beyond game one, the Rays have more experience, but C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis have had very strong years while Shields and Garza have struggled somewhat. Still I can't much separate the teams beyond their number one starters—which speaks to the struggles of Shields, as coming into the season the Rays would have had a clear edge.
Both bullpens are very strong. Both have a dominant closer, though Neftali Feliz is probably slightly more dominant than Rafael Soriano. But that's like saying Black Sabbath rocks slightly more than Iron Maiden (though of course, reasonable minds may differ). Both have a setup guy with a minuscule ERA who kind of came out of nowhere (Joaquin Benoit and Alexi Ogando), and the remainder of each bullpen is strong. While relief pitching is of course volatile, none of the key relievers for either team seem to be getting by on smoke and mirrors: the Rangers have five of the top 28 AL relievers in FIP (which corrects for defensive performance and stranded runners) this season (minimum 30 IP), while the Rays aren't quite as deep but have three of the top ten.
Both teams are very well matched, but the Rangers have the best starting pitcher and, in a short series, he can pitch two of the five games. Were Cliff Lee more mortal, I'd say the Rays win in five, but I think the Rangers will take this one. Texas in five.
2 comments:
I think the Rays will win in 5. They are a quality side.
Nailed it.
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