Why the Red Sox Shouldn't Trade for Adrian Gonzalez

The hot rumor in Red Sox land is that the Lackey and Cameron signings (more on those in a bit) were just laying the groundwork for a bigger goal: trading Clay Buchholz or Jacoby Ellsbury for San Diego's Adrian Gonzalez. Much of this fervor is predicated on a desire for the clichéd "Big Bat" that Sox fans think they need now that Manny is on the west coast, Jason Bay is "oot," and Big Papi is just sort of "Medium Papi with chance to be slightly larger."

But here's the thing. As I noted, the Red Sox had an awful defense last year, and improving that seems to be where they're going this off-season, as defense seems to be undervalued by the free agent market. They also have an embarassment of riches in starting pitching, but given that two of their five are pretty inconsistent, they should hold on to what they have.

Even with the talk of a "bridge year" from Epstein, the Red Sox are actually positioned pretty well to challenge this year. Would Gonzalez help? Sure. But not as much as you'd think, and certainly not enough to give up cost-controlled years of young potential star players. Let's take a look:

Assume your goal is to win in 2010. We know Theo wants to build a team that can compete every year, but let's just analyze the trade for the next season. We'll also assume Buchholz OR Ellsbury plus two prospects gets the trade done. And we'll say Lowell is healthy enough to play third for 80 games, at a level in between his career norm and last year's awful showing.

(+/- are my estimated runs above or below average)

Option 1: Do nothing.
3B: Lowell for 80 games (-6 defense, +5 offense), Youk for 70 (0 defense, +15 offense), Lowrie for 10 (not sure, but say average on both sides)
Total: +14
1B: Youk for 80 games (+4 defense, +15 offense), Kotchman for 60 games (+3 defense, average offense), V. Martinez for 20 games (-1 defense, +3 offense)
Total: +24
Pitching beyond Lester/Beckett/Lackey: Dice-K 140 IP @ 4.5 RA/9 (70 RA), Buchholz 170 IP @ 4.2 RA/9 (79 RA), Wakefield 90 IP @4.5 RA (45 RA)
Total back of rotation: 27 runs above average

Total for 2010: 65 runs better than average at these positions.

Option 2: Trade Buchholz + prospects for Gonzalez. Drop Lowell for whatever you can get.
3B: Youk for 150 games (0 defense, +34 offense), Lowrie for 10 (0)
Total: +34
1B: A-Gon for 150 games (+1 defense, +42 offense), Kotchman for 10 games (negligible)
Total: +43
SP: Dice-K 140 IP (70 RA), Wakefield 120 IP (50 RA), Bowden/AAA guys 140 IP @ 5.75 RA (89 RA)
Total: +13

Total for 2010: +90

Option 3: Trade Ellsbury + prospects for A-Gon, drop Lowell.
Same as Option 2, except Hermida/Cameron/??? take Ellsbury's PT. Call this a loss of 10 runs.
On the pitching side, it would look the same as Option 1.

Option 4: Don't trade for Gonzalez, sign Beltre, drop Lowell.
3B: Beltre 150 games (+15 defense, +10 offense), Lowrie for 10 (0)
Total: +25
1B: Youk for 150 games (+8 defense, +30 offense), Kotchman for 10 (negligible)
Total: +38
SP: Same as Option 1
Total: +27

Total for 2010: +90

As you can see, in my estimation Option 4 (signing Beltre) does the same thing for the team in 2010 as trading Buchholz for Gonzalez would, and is a better idea than trading Ellsbury for Gonzalez (unless they can then sign Holliday, in which case they're the favorites--but I don't see that happening). And that's not even taking into account the prospects involved (which would likely be substantial) or the fact that they would only have Gonzalez under contract for two years, while Ellsbury is here for four years and Buchholz for five. Nor does that count the uncertainty of Gonzalez's performance changing leagues or the possiblity that Buchholz or Ellsbury outperforms my projections, which, given their talent, is very possible.

The keys that people are overlooking in advocating an Adrian Gonzalez trade are:
-How it would affect the back of the pitching rotation
-Youk has shown himself to be a better defender at first than third and would likely age better there
-Ellsbury and Buchholz are really good players, now
-The Sox don't "NEED" a big bat. Youk was second in OPS among all players last year. Drew was tenth. Martinez was 25th. Pedroia was 32nd. The Yankees had seven guys in the top 30, but they are likely to lose two of them (Matsui and Damon). The Rays had five in the top 35, but is Ben Zobrist for real? And from June 6 onward, David Ortiz had a .917 OPS, which would put him 10th if he did that over a full season--right after Jason Bay.

Signing Beltre is still the right move, but doing nothing is better than trading away five years of potential ace starting pitching or four years of a star CFer for a first baseman who will become very expensive in two years--if he can even be re-signed.

*Photo courtesy of Parker Harrington via Creative Commons License