Monday, December 14, 2009

Offseason Trade Report, or What is Arizona doing?

The winter meetings are over. As usual, there were plenty of fanfare and rumors, but precious few signings or trades. But let's take a look at what happened, and, of course, provide some snarky analysis.

The Big Trade: Curtis Granderson to Yankees; Max Scherzer, Phil Coke, Daniel Schlereth, and Austin Jackson to the Tigers; Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy to the Diamondbacks:

Usually teams do three-way trades only because a two-way one wouldn't work. For example, if the two teams don't have tradeable assets that work for the other. In this case, I'm not sure what's up, specifically from the Diamondbacks' perspective. Arizona traded a potential star pitcher in Scherzer, who is under team control for 5 years, as well as a promising reliever for two starters, one of whom may have had a career year (and tailed off badly in the second half) and another who just isn't very good. Meanwhile, the Tigers sell high on Edwin Jackson and free up salary (please give this money to Verlander) while getting a better starter going forward, two good relievers, and a good outfield prospect. The Yankees get a centerfielder who will MASH in their stadium, even though he needs to sit against most lefties. In an unrelated point, Mike Cameron hits lefthanders well, plays all three outfield slots, and is a free agent as of this writing. Hmm...

Other Notable Trades:
Kelly Shoppach to Rays for a PTBNL:

This one flew under my radar when it happened. Shoppach had an off year in 2009, but is only 30 years old and hasn't had a particular high workload because the Indians had a guy named Victor Martinez around for a while. Given that Dioner Navarro was one of the worst hitters in the Rays lineup (no matter how much praise Buck Martinez gave him), Shoppach is definitely a player worth taking a chance on. One wonders why the Red Sox and Yankees passed Shoppach up.

Kevin Millwood and money to Orioles for Chris Ray and Benjamin Snyder:

Millwood isn't particularly good, but he will keep the ball out of Jason Berken and David Hernandez's hands. If Jeremy Guthrie regains his form and Brian Matusz takes a step forward, the Orioles could actually have an alright team.

Signings:
The okay:
Chone Figgins to Mariners (4 yrs / $36 mil). Rich Harden to Rangers (1 yr / $7 mil). Marco Scutaro to Red Sox (2 yrs / $12.5 mil). Jack Wilson re-signs with Mariners (2 yrs / $10 mil). J. J. Putz to White Sox (1 yr / $3 mil).

So far, I don't love any free agent signings, but that is mainly because the best players have yet to sign. Figgins is a good player, but four years is probably one year too many. Still, the Mariners probably make up for losing Beltre with this deal and gain some versatility if Matt Tuiasosopo turns out to be an option at third base. Scutaro temporarily solves the Red Sox's shortstop problem, at least defensively, and if he keeps some of his increased batting eye he will be a plus offensively--people forget that the average AL shortstop had just a .719 OPS last year. Harden and Putz provide a great upside on one-year deals, though they are both big injury risks.

The bad:
Placido Polanco to Phillies (3 yrs / $18 mil). Brad Penny to Cardinals (1 yr / $7.5 mil). Randy Wolf to Brewers (3 yrs / 29 mil).

None of these deals are terrible, but they are all for way too much money, and in Polanco's case the plan of moving him to third base makes little sense. Penny and Wolf might do okay in AAAA the National League, but these contracts are way too big.

The ugly:
Jason Kendall to the Royals (2 yrs / $4 mil). Ivan Rodriguez to Natinals (2 yrs / $6 mil). LaTroy Hawkins to Brewers (2 yrs / $7.5 mil). Brandon Lyon to Astros (3 yrs / $15 mil).

What are these teams thinking? Both catchers can't hit anymore, and both relievers are just about average. I mean, three years for Lyon? Holy crap.

Finally, there was this strange sequence of events:
Braves sign Billy Wagner to a $6.75 million deal with a 2011 option that becomes guaranteed if he appears in 50 games. In doing so, they lose their first-round pick, #20 overall. Then they sign Takashi Saito to a $3.2 million deal. Later, they offer Rafael Soriano arbitration. To their surprise, he accepts. They then have to scramble to fit him on the 40-man roster and designate Ryan Church for assignment to make room. Days later, Soriano is traded to the Rays since the Braves don't want to pay the ~$6 million he's likely to earn in arbitration (after they gave up that much money and a first-round pick for Wagner). Net result for the Braves: Gave up two young injury-risk relievers and a first-round pick for two old injury-risk relievers, spent a bunch of money, and lost a decent fourth outfielder for nothing.

Of course, the big names are all still out there in Holliday, Beltre, and Lackey. It will be interesting to see what happens, and I'll be sure to update you with my thoughts.

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