Jonathan Papel-Done?

The Red Sox's early season struggles have everyone from the front office down to The Sausage Guy pointing fingers. It's a "bridge season." David Ortiz is too old. The preseason strategy of "run prevention" has been more like "fun prevention." One of the frequent targets of the Nation's ire, dating back to last season, is closer Jonathan Papelbon. The four time all-star and Red Sox career record-holder for saves, Paps seemed suddenly vulnerable last year. While his stats seemed to hold with his career numbers on first glance (38 saves, 1.85 ERA) a closer look reveals that he was allowing many more base runners than he had in the past. His walks per nine innings rose from 1 to 3.2, and his WHIP (Walks+Hits per Innings Pitched) has increased from 0.771 in 2007 to 1.158 this season. While a 1.16 WHIP is great for a starter, for a closer it means every time he comes in, he's allowing a runner on base, a runner who in many cases would be the tying or go-ahead run. Whispers of Papelbon's demise were magnified in the postseason when his first postseason blown save against the Angels ended the Red Sox's season. People were quick to anoint young fireballer Daniel Bard as his heir apparent, and with Papelbon signing only a one-year contract, it seems his departure is imminent.

However, after back-to-back shaky appearances against the rival Yankees this week, including a blown save/loss and another close call that he sweated his way out of, and with the Red Sox still hovering around .500, suddenly the end of the 2010 season doesn't seem soon enough, for some, to see Papelbon go.

The Red Sox, however, are not ones to make knee jerk decisions. So I'm here to try to look at the what the Sox's real options are regarding a closer.

In House

Daniel Bard, the supposed closer-in-waiting, has been solid this year so far, posting an ERA of 2.57 (compared to Papelbon's 3.60), with a WHIP of 1 and a K/IP ratio of 26/21, a ratio that leads all Sox pitchers. However, with less than a full year of major league experience under his belt, there is no way to know how Bard would react to being made the full-time closer in an intense city like Boston so quickly. If he played in a smaller market, I would say Bard might as well start now, but for that to happen, the Sox would have to trade Papelbon, leaving them without a clear backup option—something that the fans of Boston, who expect a contender every year—would not be pleased with. Manny Delcarmen leads the team in ERA with 2.25, and despite being young, has a little more experience under his belt than Bard. However, his 4.95 K/9 is not the typical stuff of closers, and all of Boston is aware of Delcarmen's up-and-down 2010 season where he sported a mid-4 ERA and a WHIP over 1.60. A fun name to throw around, but one that the Red Sox would probably never consider unless in the most dire of situations is former starter Tim Wakefield. Ridiculous, you say? Wake has 22 career saves, including 15 for the Sox back in 1999. The idea of his knuckleball fluttering toward hitters in the ninth after a steady dose of Beckett and Lester fastballs has "just crazy enough to work" potential, but the unpredictability of the pitch is not conducive to close end-of-game situations, and it's doubtful Wake would be happy in the role at this point in his career. The rest of the Sox's bullpen doesn't seem to be even worth considering for the job, because if Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez, Scott Schoenweis, or Scott Atchison had closer stuff, we would've known a long time ago.

On the Farm

The top prospect in the Red Sox system is currently pitcher Casey Kelly, ranked by ESPN's Keith Law as one of the Top 25 prospects in the minors entering the season. Kelly, currently in Double A Portland, has electric stuff that could make him a fun closer to watch, but he's being groomed for a starter. Stolmy Pimentel, Felix Doubront, and Junichi Tazawa are all in the same boat, but with lower grade stuff. If Tazawa or perhaps former top prospect Michael Bowden continue to struggle with their control, they could be transformed into relievers in the future. However, this is already what the Sox did with Bard, reinventing the former first-round pick after he failed as a starter, and none of the above names would be close to equalling what Bard has already become. The current closer in Triple A Pawtucket is Robert Manuel, who is sporting a tidy 1.64 ERA and four saves, but turning 27 years old this summer, he can hardly be called a prospect.

On the Trading Block

As always, there should be some veteran relief pitchers available around the trade deadline this season. If Huston Street returns from injury but finds that the Colorado closing job is no longer his, he could become expendable for the Rockies. Kerry Wood could likewise find himself unneeded as Cleveland moves toward a youth movement. Other pitchers with closing experience and expiring contracts are Brian Fuentes, JJ Putz, Grant Balfour, Jeremy Affeldt, Chad Qualls, Scott Downs, and Scott Shields. While the Red Sox would be wise to possibly pick one of these guys up for depth, it would be laughable to think that one of them would be more reliable than Papelbon at this point. Perhaps the best name the Sox could consider, if Chicago falls out of contention, would be lefty Matt Thornton, but the White Sox will probably plan on giving him a new contract and possibly make him their closer when they accept that Bobby Jenks is awful.

The Incumbent

Then there is staying the course with Papelbon. While Papelbon's ERA is currently higher than it has been in any other season, and his WHIP continues to rise, he still has ten saves in eleven chances. The problem with even the most dominant closers is that they are susceptible to suddenly becoming ineffective (à la Keith Foulke) but Papelbon is still only 29 years old and shouldn't be showing signs of wearing down yet. Red Sox fans have been spoiled during their decade-long run of success—Derek Lowe, Tom Gordon, Keith Foulke, Paps—they've always had a solid to great option closing down games at the end. The idea of having someone like a Joe Borowski or a Matt Capps keeping the opposing team in the game whenever handed the ball is horrifying and laughable at the same time. While the Red Sox probably need to make some moves to gain the necessary ground to contend this fall, Boston's residents should realize that even a mediocre Papelbon is better than 2/3 of the closers in the league, and is almost certainly more reliable than anyone available to replace him at the moment. Trading Papelbon now would probably not net the value worth trading him unless the Sox drop completely out of contention, at which point who is closing games and whether he gets traded or not will be moot because all of Boston will probably be engulfed in riots and bonfires.

Seriously, though, nothing has changed: Papelbon is the man, and Bard is the man-in-waiting. As frustrating and troubling as it's been to see Papelbon struggle to regain his dominant form, he's simply the best option available and the closer with the best chance of helping the Red Sox turn around their lukewarm start.

*Photo courtesy of Rayden Hale via Creative Commons license