Super Bowl 44 Perfect Preview

“There is no defense against a perfect pass. I can throw the perfect pass.” -Dan Marino

"Perfect" is an overused term which has lost much of its meaning. My favorite sportswriter, Joe Posnanski, wrote recently that "we live in a time when many words have lost their power, when spectacular is good, when great is better than average, when a team that is undefeated is perfect no matter how they got there, when I find myself saying 'awesome' just when a waiter brings me a second Diet Coke before I have finished the first." The Colts weren't perfect through 14 games, even though they hadn't lost. Neither were the Saints through 13. The Colts had won seven games in extremely close fashions, including beating the Texans after they missed a 42-yard field goal that would have won the game, and of course the 4th-and-2 call against New England when the Colts won by a debatable half yard.

The Saints had their own problems even as they racked up 13 consecutive wins. They probably should have lost in week 12 against the Redskins ("Crazy plays," linebacker Jonathan Vilma said. "When you're hot, you're hot. And sometimes it's better to be lucky than good."), and their flukey nine returns for touchdowns makes their offense look better than it was.

All that aside, Peyton Manning may be the perfect quarterback.

Week 1: Indianapolis 14, Jacksonville 12. After a perfect 35-yard pass to Reggie Wayne, the Colts put up consecutive three-and-outs and allowed the Jaguars to come back to within two. While Manning didn't take over the game from this point on, he put up two drives of four minutes each, and the defense forced two 3-and-outs to give the Colts the game.

Week 2: Indianapolis 27, Miami 23. Manning makes a perfect pass on the first play from scrimmage. Overall, the Colts only take 35 offensive snaps, but Manning is so efficient that it doesn't matter. In the fourth quarter, down by two scores, he makes this perfect pass for a big gain, and later leads the Colts on a four-play, 80-yard drive to take the lead for good.

Week 3: Indianapolis 31, Arizona 10. This game wasn't really that close. Manning torches the Cardinals for 379 yards and four TDs, making perfect passes all day long.

Week 4: Indianapolis 34, Seattle 17. This is getting boring now. Peyton builds a 34-3 lead throwing for, like, three trillion yards or something. This pass is pretty perfect.

Week 5: Indianapolis 31, Tennessee 9. At the end of the first half, the Colts go 93 yards in 48 seconds to take a 21-9 lead. This isn't even noteworthy in the game recap.

Week 8: Indianapolis 18, San Francisco 14. Even the most perfect quarterback of all time is allowed an off game, right? Isn't that what Posnanski was saying up there?

Week 9: Indianapolis 20, Houston 17. Manning's perfection rubs off in a reverse way on Kris Brown who misses the aforementioned 42-yarder that should have won the game. Peyton knows how to win.

Week 10: Indianapolis 35, New England...yeah, let's just skip this one.

Week 12: Indianapolis 35, Houston 27. Manning threw for two touchdowns in the second half as the Colts came back from being down big. But did anyone watching think Texas would hold on? With stuff like this?

As we're getting to more recent history, I'll stop with the week-by-week summaries, but here's the thing: it's more of the same. Every week, Manning threw lasers all over the field. If he got pressure, he might throw a wobbly pass, but the Colts' line is so good that he rarely had rushers in the backfield, and teams were hesitant to blitz him for fear of leaving their secondary to get burned. There's really no good way to attack the Colts' offense because Manning is SO DAMN GOOD. And it's all Manning--just look at what happened in the two games he didn't play. Reggie Wayne would be good with anyone, but who are Austin Collie and Pierre Garçon, really (besides having great names)?

Prediction? How do you predict against Peyton Manning this year? It just can't be done. The statisticians say that winning big is a better predictor of a good team than close wins, as close wins hinge on unpredictable events like fumbles, bad or "50-50" calls, dropped balls, and so on. But Manning has shown the ability to drive his team efficiently and simply dominate a defense so often this year that I think there is something to all his close wins. My theory is that he spends the first few series of a game figuring out what will work, and by the end of the game he has such a feel for what the defense is doing that he can move the ball basically however he wants. Drew Brees is no slouch, but when the Saints "athletic receivers run as fast as they can down the field" offense has faltered, he doesn't seem to have the same power.

Colts win 31-21.

Fair and balanced postscript: Peyton Manning, if he wins Sunday, will have a 10-8 record in the playoffs, with two Super Bowl wins. Tom Brady has a 13-4 playoff record, with three wins, for a long time had no good receivers, has the best statistical season of all time, and made a superchild with a very attractive woman. Hopefully this saves my New England cred.